By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: September 12, 2017 2:28 PM

Michigan’s 11th U.S. House District is not a toss-up seat, even with U.S. Rep. David Trott’s decision not to seek re-election in 2018.

Yes, it has gone from a longshot opportunity for Democrats if they had to try to unseat Mr. Trott (R-Birmingham) to one very much on the radar screen where they could, with the right circumstances, win it.

Various national political analysts and reporters, whom I hold in high regard, have gotten a bit carried away on what Mr. Trott’s departure means. They’re calling the 11th District a toss-up.

I define toss-up, as I assume most do, as neither party having an advantage and it would not take much for the seat to go either way. Remember when the old 8th U.S. House District flipped between Democrat Bob Carr to Republican Dick Chrysler to Democrat Debbie Stabenow to Republican Mike Rogers in the span of just five election cycles?

That’s a toss-up seat. Or when U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak retired in 2010 after a long run where his personal popularity led to nine victories in a politically competitive seat, triggering a razor-close race to succeed him? That’s a toss-up.

But the 11th District was drawn by Republicans in the Legislature to favor Republican candidates, plain and simple. When it comes to seats in the Michigan Legislature, I’ve downplayed the significance of GOP control of the map drawing process, but the design of the U.S. House districts in metropolitan Detroit, with the requirement that they be even in population, was a flagrant move by Republicans to help their cause, and the 11th stands as the most obvious example.

The district basically stitches together every Republican-leaning community in Oakland County south of M-59 along with the one corner of Wayne County that tilts GOP, snaking from Canton Township north to White Lake Township, east to Auburn Hills and then south to Clawson. The Democratic turf in this seat consists of Canton and Auburn Hills. Everything else is Republican country.

What intrigues Democrats, and it should, is the district has the highest percentage of any district in Michigan of those 25 and older with bachelor’s degrees at 46 percent. The median household income is $77,183, also high.

Politics is starting to break more along educational and income lines, with higher-income voters with bachelor’s degrees starting to leave their longtime home in the Republican Party in response to President Donald Trump. Democrats are hoping to make inroads in these types of seats.

Still, Mr. Trump did carry the district in 2016, though he ran below the Republican base. And it’s still a district that’s 80 percent white, a demographic that favors Mr. Trump.

And look at the potential candidate fields. The Democrats have two candidates in the race making their first run for political office and could have a third rookie. Potentially, the Democrats could add a seasoned candidate in state Rep. Tim Greimel (D-Auburn Hills) if he decides to run.

When we went over the list of potential Republican candidates yesterday in our office, we came up with 20. 20! Now, some of those ruled themselves out right away, and there’s no way that many will run, but the Republicans have plenty of potential options. The reason there are more Republican options than Democratic ones is this is Republican territory.

Of the nine state House districts that heavily overlap with the 11th, seven are held by Republicans. And of the three state Senate districts that significantly overlap with the 11th, all three are in Republican hands. This also filters down to the municipal level.

Yes, Democrats can win this seat. They no longer have to worry about Mr. Trott pouring millions of his own fortune into the seat to defend himself, and the usual advantages of incumbency are gone for the GOP. The president’s party traditionally loses seats in the mid-term elections, and this is a district where Mr. Trump is more likely to be a negative than a positive, though it’s still too early to say for sure.

But this is still a district anchored in Troy, Novi, Birmingham, Livonia, the Plymouths, the Northvilles and reliably conservative exurbs like Milford, White Lake and Waterford. Hey, guess what those communities historically have had in common in their politics? Hint: It’s not electing Democrats.

Democrats’ chances of winning this seat improved Monday with Mr. Trott’s departure. But calling this seat a toss-up now? It’s way too early to draw that conclusion.