By Zach Gorchow and Alethia Kasben
Posted: October 4, 2024 1:08 PM

The positioning phase is over, and the full-on campaign for control of the Michigan House is underway.

Democrats, who are defending their 56-54 majority, and Republicans, who are desperate to snatch it back, are making real-world decisions on where to allocate precious resources. Candidates who have done the work are seeing the cavalry from their party in the form of television advertising and mail. Candidates who have made less impressive efforts, or where the environment is too sharply against them, are increasingly standing out as losing traction.

Action at the top of the ticket only adds to the drama.

The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is a jump ball, with the presidential and vice presidential candidates for both tickets becoming almost virtual Michigan residents with the number of stops they are making.

The U.S. Senate race, which had been tilting slightly to U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, got a big jolt of energy this week when the Republican-backed Senate Leadership Fund pumped more than $20 million into advertising to support their nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.

For the Michigan House, from a resources standpoint, it's still a big Democratic advantage, though Republicans are scoffing at the millions in Detroit broadcast television advertising Democrats are spending as wildly inefficient. Still, you'd rather be the Democrats in this department, having spent $8.2 million across 14 races through Monday to $1.8 million for the Republicans with another $18.7 million reserved to $1.4 million for the GOP.

Below is the latest version of Gongwer News Service's races with the greatest possibility of flipping.

The top two remain the same, but there's a shakeup in the rest of the list.

1. (UNCHANGED) CHURCHES-LINTING CONTEST NOT GOING ANYWHERE: The reason for Republican hope here is simple. Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) narrowly won in 2022, by 1.56 percentage points, even as Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer carried her district by 10.5 points. But Trump won this district in 2016, by 8 points, and in 2020, by 4 points. There could be 10,000 more people voting this year than in 2022, and if those are low-propensity Trump voters, that could propel Rylee Linting of Wyandotte to victory.

But Downriver voters love their incumbents, and they are proven ticket-splitters.

Would you believe that in the last three presidential elections, voters Downriver elected the state House candidate of the opposite party as the presidential candidate who carried the district? It's true. Granted, the district's borders now are a bit different than in 2012, 2016 and 2020, but the point remains that people like former Rep. Pat Somerville and now-Sen. Darrin Camilleri overcame their party's presidential candidate losing – often by a big number.

Through Monday, spending by or on behalf of Churches was third-most among Democrats among 13 races with significant spending. Among Republicans, Linting is ninth. Downriver voters are more meticulous than most when it comes to needing to believe in their candidate as a person. Whether Linting can overtake Churches on that point is the question.

2. (UNCHANGED) SHANNON HAS THE TRUMPIEST DISTRICT OF ANY DEM: The contest between Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) and Republican Ron Robinson of Utica is about one thing, and one thing only: Can Shannon survive in a district that Trump won by 6 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016?

For the first time, Shannon is facing a strong opponent in Robinson as someone who has won elected office. And Republicans say Robinson is a force going door to door. In 2018 and 2020, Republicans nominated candidates so far out on the fringe, the House Republican Campaign Committee refused to support them with any resources. Their 2022 nominee was more within the mainstream of the party but also running her first race for office, and Whitmer carried the district by almost 10 points to help lift Shannon.

Democrats have aired a commercial zinging Robinson over a 1992 embezzlement conviction. Will it leave a mark? Good luck figuring that one out in Macomb County.

As of Monday, Robinson was sixth in resources spent by Republicans among the 13 House races with ad spending. Shannon was sixth among Democrats – but it's a $497,000 to $107,000 edge over Robinson. Democrats have another $600,000 in ad reservations on the way. Republicans will have to make a call on television in the Detroit market for Robinson, but it seems if any of their House candidates has earned the investment, it's him.

3. (UP FROM 5) SCHMALTZ-MAHONEY TILT SEEING BIG MONEY: Democrats have reserved twice as much advertising in the 46th District in hopes of toppling Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson) than against any other Republican incumbent. That's saying something, considering the other three Republican incumbents where Democrats are playing are in the far more expensive Detroit television market.

Meanwhile, Schmaltz has more advertising money behind her than any other Republican candidate. Republicans are blistering Daniel Mahoney, the Jackson mayor, with attack ads.

Add it up, and it seems both parties are seeing what we're seeing: a 50/50 seat, Schmaltz has yet to face a real test after her 2022 runaway, and Mahoney is a strong challenger.

Democrats really need to knock out a Republican incumbent to buy themselves some breathing room, both from the standpoint of keeping majority, and if they keep the majority, 57-53 is much simpler to handle than 56-54.

Ad spending so far is a slight Mahoney edge, $374,000 to $290,000 as of Monday. There's another $1.8 million reserved for Mahoney, presuming he can stay competitive and justify the expense.

4. (UP FROM 6) DEMOCRATS TRYING TO REDEFINE BOHNAK IN HILL DEFENSE: Republicans were ecstatic about former television meteorologist Karl Bohnak of Negaunee getting into the race against Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) in the 109th House District.

It's been said before, but it needs to keep being said: This district is the white whale for Republicans. They have tried and tried but have not held the seat since the early 1950s.

Bohnak, however, represents the best candidate Republicans have fielded here – and Democrats clearly think so, too. They are bombarding Upper Peninsula television with attack ads deriding him as "Conspiracy Karl" – on everything from January 6 to COVID-19 and more.

Trump won this seat in 2016 with 49 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump's vote share fell to 48 percent, while Joe Biden took 50 percent. Trump could be helpful here, but Marquette is not like the rest of the U.P. What Republicans are banking on is Bohnak's name recognition and reputation more so than Trump.

Democrats, besides the conspiracy angle, are hammering Bohnak on his opposition to abortion, and it's no mystery why. Proposal 22-3 legalizing abortion soared to victory in this district, 59 percent to 41 percent.

Marquette TV is cheap, so the money spent here goes much further than Downstate. But the Republican priority here is obvious with Bohnak fifth on the list of advertising spending so far. Hill has an edge in advertising spent on her, but total reservations are not too far apart.

5. (UP FROM 7) REPUBLICANS PRIORITIZE UNSEATING COFFIA: Republicans have spent more so far on advertising against Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) than any other Democratic incumbent. This is something of a surprise. There are other districts where the environment might be Trumpier. And the trend in the 103rd District is clearly moving in the Democrats' direction.

Consider this: In 2012, Mitt Romney won 54 percent of the vote in the district. Trump took 50 percent in 2016. In 2020, Trump's percentage fell to 47 percent. In the 2014 governor's race, Rick Snyder took 58 percent. In 2018, Bill D. Schuette took 47 percent. In 2022, Tudor Dixon won 43 percent.

But Republicans love their candidate, Lisa Trombley of Traverse City, and in a northern Michigan district where voters tend to know more about their legislative candidates than in metro Detroit, that's important. Advertising spending here through Monday was virtually even, which says both that Republicans are prioritizing the district, and Democrats are not terribly concerned.

Coffia had the closest state House race in the state in 2022, but she was also taking on a popular Republican incumbent.

That this race moving up may say more about the races moving down the list.

6. (UP FROM 9) FRISBIE, HAADSMA RUNNING SOLID RACES: Republican Steven Frisbie of Battle Creek by all accounts is running a fine campaign in the 44th District, a seat Trump (narrowly) won twice.

Frisbie's problem is Rep. Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) is a battle-tested incumbent who also, by all accounts, has done the work in a district that may be a 50/50 seat slowly trending Republican but traditionally loves its incumbents.

The big question here is whether facing a more active candidate, Frisbie, poses a more difficult challenge to Haadsma than the meh Republican challenger he narrowly beat in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

There's a huge Democratic spending advantage here, and usually it's a safe bet to pick the candidate in a west Michigan district who has the TV advantage. It works.

7. (DOWN FROM 4) MILLER LESS OF A TARGET?: Rep. Reggie Miller's 31st House District is out of the top five. Miller, of Van Buren Township, has a few things going for her, number one being this race is a rematch of the 2022 contest against Dale Biniecki of Raisinville Township.

President Joe Biden also carried this seat 49.7 percent to 48.7 percent, and 2016 Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton narrowly won it in 2016. So, although it is a Downriver seat, the environment combined with the candidate signal it's not as ripe for flipping toward the GOP.

Spending here shows Republicans aren't necessarily making a play in this one. Democratic spending is in the millions while Republicans have reported less than $100,000.

8. (DOWN FROM 3) MORE LOPSIDED SPENDING IN MENTZER'S 61ST: Rep. Denise Mentzer of Mount Clemens has also come down this list significantly since last month. Her Republican opponent, Robert Wojtowicz of Mount Clemens, has a popular surname in the area and is a local official, but campaign finance reports make it appear he is not working the district hard.

Trump also is not as helpful here. He won the seat over Biden in 2020, but just barely. Although he did win by 5 points in 2016.

It remains on the board for now but could be off the top 10 before the election. Spending here is also very lopsided. Again, the Democrats are spending/reserving in the millions, while the GOP has spent about $30,000.

9. (DOWN FROM 8) FITZGERALD V. BRANN REMAINS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST, FOR NOW: This race between Rep. John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming) and Republican former Rep. Tommy Brann of Wyoming in the purple 83rd House District has moved down one on the list.

However, this seat could move up based solely on Republican enthusiasm and effort. Although the environment in the Macomb and Downriver seats held by Mentzer and Miller, respectively, is keeping them above this west Michigan seat for now, the GOP is actually spending here. And Brann is reportedly running a good campaign operation.

Still, so is Fitzgerald, and he has Democratic enthusiasm in the area. Republicans have essentially dropped the remaining area House districts from their map and the 3rd U.S. House District race isn't seeing action from the party, either.

10. (UNCHANGED) DEM EFFORTS KEEPING STEELE IN THE CONVERSATION: Picking the 10th seat for this list remains a challenge between two Oakland County districts held by Republicans.

For this round, we are sticking with the 54th House District held by Rep. Donni Steele (R-Orion). Here, both sides are spending more than in the 55th House District based in Rochester. The spending, like some other seats, remains lopsided.

Democrats and outside groups getting involved have spent or reserved $1.4 million. Republicans have spent or reserved about $130,000.

Shadia Martini of Bloomfield Hills, the Democrat challenging Steele, is receiving backing from outside groups like the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. It is another rematch, which can favor the incumbent. Steele won by about 1,000 votes in 2022 in a favorable Democratic environment. It's unclear if Democrats can make significant gains in a less friendly environment.

ON THE WATCH LIST

The 55th District in the Rochesters ,where Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) is seeking a third term against Democrat Trevis Harrold of Rochester Hills, remains one to keep an eye on. More lopsided spending here, but Democrats have spent or reserved less than the Steele seat, and Republicans have spent even less as well, at $17,000. Tisdel has won in both good and bad environments, most recently coming out with a 2,000-vote victory in 2022. But this area is trending Dem.

In the 28th District, Democrats have been putting resources behind Janise Robinson of Brownstown Township. Several broadcast ads attacking Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown Township) hit the airwaves in recent weeks. The DLCC put Robinson on their list of candidates for support. But Republicans aren't sweating it. Trump is expected to perform well here. And like some other seats, Thompson won this district when it was open in a good year for the Democrats. We will keep an eye on it as Democrats are significantly outspending the Republicans right now, but that could also signal the GOP isn't worried.

The 50/50 nature of the 76th House District, currently held by Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township), keeps it on our watchlist. It has less lopsided spending than other seats with Democrats still spending more than Republicans, though Republicans seem to be making a real play with Andy Shaver of Chester. As of Tuesday, Democrats have spent about $500,000 with Republicans coming in with about $240,000. Republicans are attacking Witwer on voters related to economic development and her relationship with her public relations firm. Witwer ads have attack Shaver on abortion and touted her own record. Witwer has won in different environments, but it's still one to watch.

OFF THE LIST

The 38th House District represented by Rep. Joey Andrews IV (D-St. Joseph) is off the list for now but could come back if Republicans start to spend. GOP candidate Kevin Whiteford of South Haven has shown before he will spend his own money. He hasn't yet, and if he doesn't, it's hard to see how this one gets competitive. Democrats are signaling they will spend here with $700,000 in spending or reservations heading into November. The Republicans, however, are putting up only $1,500 so far, and absentee ballots went out almost a week ago.

The 84th and 81st House districts in the Grand Rapids area are off the list. There is virtually no reported television spending here, with Republicans canceling their ad reservations. Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Walker) seems on solid footing in the 84th in her race against Republican John Wetzel of Grandville. With neither side making serious moves here, and the lack of a race in the 3rd U.S. House District, it's clear Democrats aren't worried, and the GOP isn't trying for the pickups. The 81st is open, but Democratic Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden of Grand Rapids seems to have the upper hand over Republican Jordan Youngquist of Grand Rapids.