By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: January 7, 2020 5:19 PM

For most of the term limits era, there's a pretty reliable pattern during the election cycle when it comes to the Michigan House.

It starts out with a relatively large number of the 110 seats looming as competitive, perhaps 25-30. The parties early in the cycle when it comes to candidate recruitment seek to make sure they have at least credible candidates on the ballot in those seats in the event a real race develops. Of those 25-30, probably 10-15 are seen as seriously up for grabs.

Then as the cycle gets about a year out from Election Day, there's usually a narrowing. Several seats fall off the radar because the parties are struggling to find someone to run. Electoral trends cause party strategists to conclude they ought not waste time and resources in some seats. Then once the primary is over, it starts to become clear whether candidates who had gained little notice have built momentum through fundraising, hard work and the partisan lean for the cycle and the field expands some. Finally, in the final two to three weeks, the parties have to make final decisions on where to spend their money and the field shrinks again to about 10 seats.

For the 2020 cycle, however, it all looks different.

There are precious few competitive seats and there's no sign that will change in a meaningful way.

Republicans hold a 58-51 advantage in the House with the one vacancy in a solidly Democratic seat, so it's functionally 58-52 with Democrats needing to flip four seats for control.

There's a core number of five to seven seats in play. That may increase a bit depending on how the parties do with candidate recruitment, but House control will hinge on those seats and few others.

The seats:

• 38th District in southwest Oakland County: Rep. Kathy Crawford (R-Novi) had a major scare and barely survived reelection in 2018, and now the woman who almost beat her, Democratic Novi City Councilmember Kelly Breen, is back for another go with Ms. Crawford barred from running again because of term limits. UPDATED 12:38 P.M. JANUARY 8: Ms. Breen won't have a free pass for the Democratic nomination. Former Novi Democratic Club Chair Megan McAllister also is running. Republicans have a couple candidates, including one who gave Ms. Crawford a tough run in the 2020 GOP primary. This is a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats in an area trending their way.
• 39th District in west central Oakland County: Rep. Ryan Berman (R-Commerce Township) ended up getting a free pass in 2018 after the Democratic candidate imploded under a criminal embezzlement scandal. Now he faces Democrat Julia Pulver of West Bloomfield, who nearly pulled off a shocking upset in the 15th Senate District. Yes, Oakland County has become very blue, but the bulk of this district is Commerce Township, and that's still a Republican-leaning community. This one could go either way.
• 45th District in northeast Oakland County: Rep. Michael Webber (R-Rochester Hills) is term limited, and this is an area that has rapidly shifted to the point where it's now 50/50 or even slightly leaning Democratic after years of being solidly Republican. Both parties have highly touted candidates they have recruited. This will be a good test to see how deep the Democratic trend in Oakland County is cutting.
• 61st District in southwest Kalamazoo County: Rep. Brandt Iden (R-Oshtemo Township) cannot run because of term limits, and both parties are high on their candidates in an area that has swung quickly and decisively toward the Democrats in a short amount of time.
• 104th District in Grand Traverse County: Rep. Larry Inman (R-Williamsburg) will not be on the ballot in November because of term limits. It's looking less and less likely that there will be a special election here despite Mr. Inman's legal woes after he was acquitted of one charge and got a mistrial on two others. A recall campaign against him still faces major hurdles to reaching the ballot. It's not clear yet who will represent each party in the race to succeed Mr. Inman. If lower-propensity Republican voters turn out in 2020 like they did in 2016 for now-President Donald Trump, then this seat likely stays GOP. However, if the electorate looks more like 2018 when Democrats stormed to the polls in Traverse City, suburban Garfield Township and Old Mission Peninsula and those lower-propensity GOP voters stayed home, then this seat is up for grabs.

There's a few others, maybe. Republicans will surely give Rep. Laurie Pohutsky (D-Livonia) a fight given she won by the smallest margin in 2018 of any current member of the House, though western Wayne County has shifted quickly to Democrats. Democrats may ponder putting some effort into unseating Rep. Greg Markkanen (R-Hancock) because it's cheap to go on television in the Upper Peninsula and Mr. Markkanen won a close upset in 2018, but the trends in the U.P. favor the GOP outside of Marquette.

Perhaps Republicans will go after Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) after his close win in 2018. Democrats have the fundraising wonder Sarah Schulz of Midland waging a rematch against Rep. Annette Glenn (R-Williams Township) following a much closer than expected race in 2018 between the two. And there's always the possibility for a surprise.

But right now, there's five seats that look likely to decide whether Republicans extend their majority in the House to 12 years or Democrats take control and provide some needed protection to Governor Gretchen Whitmer against initiative petitions circulated by conservative groups and attempts to overturn her executive orders.

And for heaven's sake, let's not talk about the 99th District in Isabella County emerging as in play. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me eight times, shame on me.