By Ben Solis
Staff Writer
Posted: July 4, 2024 12:20 AM

A Detroit-area Senate map adopted Wednesday by the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission offers a fairly stable plan from a partisan standpoint but includes some radical geographic changes for the members across 15 amended districts.

The plan – called Crane A1 – also includes no matchups among incumbents eligible for reelection and cuts up Detroit across four districts, with all but a tiny corner of the city split between three districts, which could raise concerns later regarding how those new Detroit districts are concentrated with Black voters.

But for now, the adoption of the map moves the commission another step closer to fulfilling the court order that brought them back to the drawing board early this year.

The commission was ordered by a federal three-judge panel late last year to redraw its Detroit-area House and Senate maps after the court found that the group violated the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause because it predominantly considered race when drawing those seats.

The 2024 Motown Sound House map, adopted by the commission and approved by the court earlier this year, replaced the 2021 Hickory House map.

Crane A1 will replace the 2021 Linden Senate map if the court accepts the commission's work. The map must be submitted to the three-judge panel on Thursday, and the panel has said that it would issue a ruling to approve or reject the commission's work by late July.

Much like the Motown Sound map, the Crane map made changes focused on Detroit and its surrounding areas – outstate districts remain unchanged from the Linden configuration.

In a news conference following the adoption of the Crane map, Chair Anthony Eid (I-Canton) was asked if the commission felt the map satisfied the court's order.

"Throughout this Senate remedial process, we followed the same process that we underwent when creating the Motown Sound remedial plan, and both the person who the person who the court appointed to evaluate (Motown Sound), and eventually the court itself, affirmed what the commission decided," Eid said. "So, because we followed the same process, it is our expectation that a similar result will happen; that the court will affirm the (Crane) map that the commission adopted."

The main features of the Crane A1 map:

Detroit is divided between four districts, but principally three, one of which might prove challenging for Sen. Mary Cavanagh (D-Redford Township), instead of the current eight;

New open seats in suburban Wayne County, one anchored in Dearborn, the other in Canton Township;

A reworking of northern and western Oakland County and northern Macomb County to produce a northern Macomb County-heavy district where no incumbent currently lives;

Stability for four swing district incumbents: Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D-Brownstown Township), Sen. Michael Webber (R-Rochester Hills), Sen. Veronica Klinefelt (D-Eastpointe) and Sen. Kevin Hertel (D-St. Clair Shores);

The opportunity for Republicans to pick up a seat with Sen. Rosemary Bayer (D-Keego Harbor) pushed westward into a competitive district.

Looking at U.S. Voting Rights Act compliance, the Crane map has four performing districts that offer Black voters a strong opportunity to elect their candidate of choice.

Those districts include the 3rd District, on the east side of the city abutting the Grosse Pointes and Lake St. Clair-centric 12th District that also includes Hamtramck and Highland Park; the 1st District, comprising the heart of the city's downtown area and its Downriver suburbs to the south; the 6th District comprising the city's westside neighborhoods; and the 7th District, which connects Southfield with Pontiac north of Eight Mile Road.

Former Rep. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo had become the de facto spokesperson for the plaintiffs in Agee v. Benson, the court case that invalidated the Hickory House and Linden Senate plans.

Gay-Dagnogo organized forces of Detroit residents to give public comment throughout the process, reminding the commission of their charge and the court's order. She also led the groups advocating for the Crane A1 map when it became one of 12 maps advanced by the commission as a draft map.

She did not issue an official statement on Wednesday evening, but on Facebook thanked those who weighed in and praised the fact that, "Crane A1 prevailed!"

In terms of the partisan lean of that map, it may be more status quo than some expected.

The Crane map has a lopsided margin score of 5.1 percent, offering Democrats a potential winning margin of 63.6 percent versus the GOP's potential average winning margin of 58.5 percent, based major election results over the past decade. This margin leans Republican, however.

Crane has a mean-median partisan fairness score of 2.9 percent leaning Republican, with Democrats netting a potential district median percentage of 50.8 percent to the GOP's 49.2 percent, and with Democrats potentially having a statewide mean of 53.7 percent to the GOP's 46.3 percent.

Republican candidates have an efficiency gap advantage of 1.8 percent, with the Democratic voters potentially wasting 25.9 percent of total votes cast to GOP voters wasting 24 percent of total votes cast.

Crane also has a seats to votes ratio of 2.4 percent, with the Democrats netting 21 seats and the Republicans getting 17 based on past election data.

Setting those numbers aside, the fundamental dynamics of the current map – nine seats that favor Democrats, two for Republicans and four tossup seats – are essentially the same in the new one. The only difference is that Klinefelt won't have as solidly a Democratic district as the other eight Democratic-favored seats, but it's still much better for her than her current seat.

If Republicans expected a map that would have a chance to knock out Klinefelt and pick up a seat, that may be a lot harder under Crane A1 – conceivable, but more difficult.

Of the 15 Senate districts altered, there's currently 12 Democrats and three Republicans. The district of the Democrat with the most Republican tilting district, Sen. Kevin Hertel (D-St. Clair Shores), is unchanged. In effect, Klinefelt and Sen. Rosemary Bayer (D-Keego Harbor) will swap places, with Klinefelt having a safer Democratic district and Bayer moving to the tossup column.

The question for Republicans would be who they feel they have a better chance to beat: Bayer or Klinefelt?

A look at the 2020 presidential results in those districts might help, but the Trump-Biden contest numbers for Klinefelt's district are nearly the same as Bayer's new district. Still, it's not necessarily a cause for celebration for either party.

Klinefelt goes from a Biden 51 percent to Trump 48 percent district to a Biden 53 percent and Trump 45 percent district – a subtle but big enough change that helps her. If the Republicans were able to unseat Bayer, it's possible that Klinefelt remains in good shape.

Camilleri's district has no real change from a partisan standpoint.

For Webber, his district has minimal change that makes his district a tiny bit more challenging. That's good news for the Republicans because the other map variations fared far worse for Webber.

Bayer said Wednesday she plans to remain in her district, pointing out that her husband is a stroke survivor and the last move ahead of the 2022 cycle was very hard on him and is not something she plans on doing again. The new map would allow her to move back to Beverly Hills, where she was based from 2019-22 and represent a solidly Democratic district. But Bayer nixed the idea.

"We need to look at the map as a whole, not just at my district … the whole idea is to make sure it's fair," Bayer said in an interview. "What I heard is it's supposed to be 51 percent Dem, so hopefully it's winnable."

The senator has experience in winning close races, winning in a district that was Republican leaning in 2018 by about a 0.8 percentage point margin. In 2022, she was redistricted into a district with another Democratic incumbent. She moved a short distance to the neighboring district, a more Democrat district, and won by a 14-point margin.

When asked about how difficult it has been under redistricting to have her district change every time she runs, Bayer said: "I'll get famous for (being) the one who kept getting hard districts and was still winning."

Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township) in a statement said Senate Republicans will take a closer look at the new map soon.

"We look forward to reviewing in detail what the commission has adopted, as well as the opinion of the court," Nesbitt said. "It's just a shame that Democrats continue to jam through a far-left, partisan agenda with these current, racially gerrymandered districts."

VOTE PROCESS WENT DOWN TO THE WIRE: The adoption of the Crane map on Wednesday was no easy task.

The commission had for the better part of the week debated, argued and voted several times without reaching a consensus on which map to advance.

Michigan's Constitution dictates that a map can only be adopted if it has affirmative votes from two Democrats, two Republicans and at least two politically unaffiliated members.

The Crane map emerged as the clear favorite on Tuesday, but only one Democrat – Juanita Curry of Detroit – voted in favor of the map. The other three Democrats – Elaine Andrade, Donna Callaghan and Brittni Kellom – held the line and voted primarily for the Kellom map.

Callaghan flipped her vote once to support a map created by Commissioner Rebecca Szetela (I-Canton), but eventually flipped back to support the Kellom map in the fifth and final round of consensus voting.

That moved the method to ranked choice voting, where the Crane map eventually prevailed with 43 votes.

Of note, Andrade and Chair Anthony Eid (I-Orchard Lake), who had also been in favor of the Kellom map in subsequent voting rounds before flipping, as well, listed the Crane map as a top choice, giving it enough momentum to become the adopted 2024 plan.